Apologies for not writing an Update last month. I had a minor operation on my hand and was struggling to use my computer.
Since my last update in June, on one level not much has changed, but behind the headlines there have been many developments.
In Israel, the election campaign now in full swing. The date has been confirmed as Tuesday October 27th. However, there is still time for changes in who will actually be standing for election because alliances between parties may be formed or broken.
The Israeli elections are held on a Closed List Proportional Representation system with a single countrywide consistency with a 3.25% threshold requirement, (equivalent to 4 Members of the Knesset (MKs) out of 120), to gain representation in the new Knesset. Typically, between 8 to 12 lists pass the threshold, leading to a Coalition between several different lists/parties in the new Government.
The other complication in these elections will be the rise of new parties in the centre and left. I have written before about Together (Yacḥad in Hebrew) led by the former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid and about The Democrats led by Yair Golan. These are both mergers of existing parties.
What has surprised me is the rise of a new party Yashar (Straight) led by the former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, Yashar is a centrist party and while Eisenkot has previously supported a two-state solution, since the Hamas attack on October 7th 2023, he has rowed back on this. Currently Yashar looks like becoming the biggest party in the new Knesset.
There has also been a rise in smaller left-wing, bi-national parties like Makom LeKulanu (A Place For Us All) set up by the leaders of Standing Together and Kol Ezrachia (All Its Citizens) but these may not end up running in the election to avoid splitting the leftist vote.
Currently opinion polls point to a hung Knesset where the anti-Netanyahu block (Yashar, Together, The Democrats, and Yisrael Beiteinu) with 58 MKs, the pro-Netanyahu block (Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Religious Zionists and Otzma Yehudit) with 51 MKS, leaving 11 other MKs from the mainly Arab lists (Raam and Hadash) who may, or may not, support the anti-Netanyahu block. That said, there may be changes in which parties will support or oppose Netanyahu depending on what inducements are offered after the election.
Whatever the result on October 27th, there will be weeks (if not months) of negotiations before a new Government is formed. Until then Netanyahu and his Government will remain in power with the ability to keep the oppression of Palestinians in place.
Turning to the Palestinian Elections in the West Bank and Gaza, it is much harder to give a good overview. The date has been confirmed as 28th November but with the lack of resources in English, it is difficult to find out what is happening, I will be reaching out to Samer Sinjlawi (who I met in London last year) to find out more. Sinjlawi, who is leading the New Path party in the elections, is a long-time peace activist and works for a pragmatic solution with likeminded Israelis. This article in the Vatican’s PIME Asia News gives some background.
It is clear that there will be a number of other parties standing (including one linked to Hamas) and I will try to get more information about them. Also, with the lack of up-to-date opinion polls (the last I can find was from 2024), it is hard to see how each party is doing.
It is also unclear if Israel (probably still under an interim Netanyahu Government) will aid or obstruct the Palestinian elections, especially in Gaza.
I have focused very much on the upcoming elections as they offer the best hope for changing the destructive status quo that has gripped Palestine and Israel for the last few years and led to almost endless violence and deaths. However, that doesn’t mean that while we wait there is nothing we can do.
There are many peace groups in both nations and even joint groups. Some I have featured before, like Combatants for Peace, the Parents Circle – Peace Forum, Women Wage Peace and Women of the Sun. There are many more listed on the Alliance for Middle East Peace (ALLMEP) members webpage. These groups deserve our support so please look and see where you can help, even if it just following them on social media and spreading information about them.
Finally, as I wrote last time, instead of a Conference fringe event, we have organised two online events in early September looking at the role of religious extremists in Palestine. On September 7th, our Chair Mohammed Amin will be looking at Hamas in Palestine and on September 14th, Ruvi Ziegler will look at Kahanism in Israel. Both will start at 7:30 pm. If you want to join either, please send an email to ldfpme@gmail.com for an invite.
Our next Executive Meeting will be on Monday October 5th, and our AGM will be on Monday November 9th. Full details of both will be up online soon. As ever, all members of LDfPME are welcome to attend. If you are a Lib Dem and haven’t joined yet, then you can do so by following this link