A month has passed since my previous update but the situation across the Middle East has not changed much. The non-ceasefires in both Gaza and South Lebanon are in place in name only. The conflict with Iran continues with no sign of ending, despites Trump’s oft repeated claim that some sort of long-term solution will be agreed soon. Meanwhile, on all sides, the deaths continue.
To try to understand what is happening and why, we need to look behind the headlines.
In Israel, Netanyahu and his Coalition are desperately trying to do two things. One is to shore up their voter support ahead of the elections that must be held by October 27th but may be called earlier. The other is to push through as many extremist measures as possible before the elections; measures like weaking the role of the Attorney-General, retaining political control over the October 7th inquiry, and reducing the payment to the PA of the tax revenues which Israel collects on the PA’s behalf.
Looking at recent Israeli opinion polls, they haven’t moved much since last month. The current Netanyahu Coalition looks like getting 50 to 53 seats in the next Knesset, with the anti-Netanyahu block getting 57 to 60, and the Joint List (Arab and left-wing Israeli Parties) getting 10. Such a result would block Netanyahu carrying on as PM but may not allow a stable government to be formed. This could lead to another election next year.
In Palestine, President Abbas has announced that elections for the Palestinian National Council (PNC), made up of representatives of both Palestinians living inside Palestine and those living abroad, will be held on November 1st. This may well coincide with elections to the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) which is the Palestinian Parliament inside Palestine including Gaza, since the members of the PLC will also be on the PNC. As the local elections earlier this year across Palestine were a victory for Abbas supporters, he will probably win the PLC elections as well.
In other news that has been under reported in the UK, this week has seen a major conference in Paris, The Paris Peace Forum organised in part by the Alliance for Middle East Peace (ALLMEP). As well of the call for a Two State solution in Paris, there has been the formal launch by UK, Australia & Canada of the International Peacebuilding Fund for Israel and Palestine to support the work of those working to build peace in the area.
All too often we only see the bad news that comes out of Palestine and Israel. However, while there is plenty of bad news, there are also many groups that are working tirelessly to build a grassroots momentum for peace. One such group is The Mother’s Call, a joint initiative of the Palestinian Women of the Sun and the Israeli Women Wage Peace. It is time that the voice of women is heard loud and clear calling for peace and security for all, and for a better future for their children and future generations.
Looking ahead to Party Conference this year, we will not be holding a fringe event as we do not have the resources to arrange one. Instead, we are planning two online events in the lead up to it on the role of religious extremism in both Palestine and Israel. Full details will be publicised soon but do try to keep the evenings of Monday 7th September add Monday 14th September free to join these online meetings.
Our next Executive Meeting will be on Monday July 6th and full details of it will be up online soon. As ever all members of LDfPME are welcome to attend. If you are a Lib Dem and haven’t joined yet, then you can do so by following this link.