When I started to write this month’s update just before the start of Pesach (Passover) and Good Friday, I was acutely aware of the situation in Palestine, Israel, and Iran. I was worried that by the time I finished it after Pesach the war across the Middle East would still be going.
Thankfully, the bombing of Iran and Iran’s retaliation against the Gulf States and Israel seems to be over. However, the Israeli re-invasion of South Lebanon, along with the bombing of supposed Hezbollah targets in Beirut and Hezbollah’s responses of missiles into North Israel goes on, for now.
Given the way Trump was speaking just a few days ago, this is a welcome outcome. But I can’t help wondering why so many have been killed, so much damage inflicted, so much spent on munitions, for an outcome that has left the existing regime with a stronger hold over Iran and its people, the movement of oil, gas and other vital commodities through the Staitis of Hormuz still constrained, and the Iranian stockpile of enriched uranium seemingly untouched.
Much has been made of how Netanyahu had convinced Trump to start an attack on Iran (a dream Netanyahu has had for years), with what was, at best, was a very dubious intelligence assessment of the vulnerability of the Iranian Government and the scope for creating a popular uprising. It seems impossible that Trump will be fooled again into restarting a war that seems impossible for the USA to succeed in.
This leaves Netanyahu more vulnerable than he has been for a long time. Far from bringing the security he claimed the war would give Israel, the number of civilian deaths (and soldiers killed in Lebanon) has turned public opinion against Netanyahu. Indeed, the latest Israeli opinion poll has given the anti-Netanyahu block an outright majority in the upcoming Knesset elections for the first time which could be a turning point in Israel’s future direction.
That said, I am under no illusion that a block which contains parties led by Naftali Bennett (Bennett 2026) and Avigdor Lieberman (Yisrael Beiteinu), both of who have their political roots in Likud, is going to be pro-Palestinian but those parties, and the other parties (Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot, The Democrats led by Yair Golan and Yesh Atid led by Yair Lapid) will be far more pragmatic in looking to what is best for Israel’s future, which must include an agreement with Palestine, than the current coalition of fascists and zealots led by a Prime Minister more concerned with his own future than the country’s.
In other news, you will no doubt have seen that the Israeli Coalition has pushed a law through the Knesset that mandates the death penalty for terrorists who murder, but with a law that is worded so that it will only apply to Palestinians and not to Jews. LDfPME, along with many other Jewish & International bodies, has condemned this law as it will not promote peace and cohesion in Israel and Palestine. Many in Israel also oppose this law and have appealed to the Israeli Supreme Court to overturn it as it is, in the words of Gilad Kariv MK from The Democrats, “racist and extreme law, immoral and unconstitutional. A law that is not a law but a populist and artistic election campaign of a party that has absolutely failed in all the government tasks it has undertaken.”
Also, in my opinion, far from deterring terrorists, carrying out the death penalty on Palestinian terrorists will simply create martyrs and inspire more to resort to violence. As well, it will further alienate Israel from the rest of the world.
Finally, can I remind you that the 21st Israeli-Palestinian Joint Memorial Ceremony – “We are the Day After” is taking place on Monday April 20th, starting at 6:30 pm. To be part of the online audience, you will need to register. While the Ceremony is in Arabic & Hebrew, there will be English subtitles. You can also watch last year’s Ceremony on YouTube here.